The United Nations says global warming is now on track to exceed 2.8°C

Updated 2026-10-24 · told from many outlets at once

By 2100, global warming is projected to reach 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius, with the world already on track to exceed the 1.5-degree Paris target. Emissions in 2025 matched 2024 records, rising in the US, Indonesia, and China.

• Under current policies, global warming by 2100 is estimated at 2.8 degrees Celsius.
• The UNEP's report suggests global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced 18 percent by 2030.
• Avoiding 1.5 C of warming above pre-industrial levels is now impossible.
• Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 were similar to record levels in 2024.
• Preliminary data for 2025 shows rising emissions in the United States, Indonesia, and China.
• The lowest overshoot scenario requires peak warming to be between 1.7 and 1.8 degrees Celsius.
• The UN Environment Programme reports humanity is far from climate goals.
• National climate plans and current policies fall dangerously short.
• The UN's Emissions Gap Report 2026 assesses the difference between promised and necessary actions.
• The report attributes a worse outcome than last year's projections to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
• The report stated that every five years of current CO2 emissions raises peak warming by about 0.1 degrees Celsius.
• Guterres criticized that greenhouse gas emissions remain at record levels and national climate measures are insufficient.
• US emissions increased last year by 133 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
• The G20 accounts for three-quarters of global emissions.

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